The Modern Investor
Written by Human Advisors, for Human Investors
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Investors React to Election with Big Stock Market Gains. What Can We Learn from the Previous Election?
The U.S. stock market responded to Tuesday’s election with big gains. International stocks fell, as did bonds. What does this mean, if anything, about what we can expect for the next four years?
We looked at how markets behaved following 2020’s election. Keep in mind, our economy is complex and markets react to a wide variety of inputs. Elections and government leadership are just part of the puzzle.
The Fed Cut Rates. What Comes Next?
September may have marked the beginning of the newest cycle in which the Federal Reserve cuts rates. Short-term rates continued to fall in every prior period. But changes in longer-term rates have been more muted and more challenging to predict.
The impact from rate cuts will likely depend on one’s perspective. Falling short-term interest rates are likely to impact savers, investors, and borrowers differently.
Potential Benefits of Health Savings Accounts (HSAs)
Health Savings Accounts offer significant potential tax advantages. Contributions are made with pre-tax dollars, grow tax-deferred, and withdrawals for qualified medical expenses are tax-free, making HSAs triple-tax advantaged. To qualify for an HSA, one must be covered under a high deductible health plan (HDHP) and meet other specific criteria. It’s important to weigh the higher out-of-pocket costs against the long-term benefits.
Time to Consider Roth Conversions?
Would you like to pay more income tax this year? It might not be as crazy as it sounds. Roth conversions – the process of moving money from a pre-tax retirement account to a tax-free, Roth alternative – can be a powerful retirement income planning and tax planning tool. But it likely means pulling income from the future to the present, along with any associated income tax.
Interest Rates Are About to Fall: Should You Act?
August’s Rough Start: A Few Thoughts
If market action from the first week of August and the corresponding headlines gave you anxiety, you are not alone. But that alone does not mean you need to make dramatic changes. If you have not already done so, I would suggest revisiting your plan. Review how much risk, intended or otherwise, you are taking with your investments. And, if nothing else has changed, it may be time to recommit to your long-term goals.
Update from the First Half(ish) of 2024
What I Did Wrong Saving for Kids
For my wife and me, saving for our kids was always a priority. We have three children, currently between 6 and 11 years old. We were fortunate to leave college without a dime of debt, and it was important to us that our kids have the same opportunity. Here is what we did, and what we would do differently if we were starting over today.
How to Beat Inflation
One of the biggest threats we all face is inflation. We recently wrote about how it can destroy returns on cash investments. Fortunately, the inflation puzzle has historically had a relatively simple solution: invest.
How Much Cash is Too Much?
Is Cash Trash? Historically, cash has not been one of the best long-term investments, especially after we consider taxes and inflation, and relative to other options that have protected or even grown purchasing power.
Where Will Interest Rates Go Next?
There was a 50% chance rates would be cut by 1.5% this year, all the way to the 3.50% to 3.75% range.
At the same time, the idea of rates remaining high (or even rising) seemed improbable, to say the least. Fast forward to today. The current odds that the lower end of the Fed Funds target range will be 5.0% or higher by the end of the year is basically a 1-to-1 coin flip.
Consider this another example of just how quickly expectations about interest rates can change.
Are Mutual Funds Still Relevant?
It’s a question we have thought about often. Click to read some of the pros and cons, as well as alternatives that could be worth considering for high earning individuals and families with meaningful amounts of taxable investments.
Looking Past the S&P 500: Is Everything at All-Time Highs?
If you are reading this, the odds are high that you don’t have 100% of your investable assets in an index fund tracking the S&P 500. You probably own other types of investments. So, what about smaller companies? Or foreign companies? Or other asset classes? Are they also at all-time highs? It turns out other pockets have not participated in this run, at least not to the same degree.
S&P 500 Peaks: Reviewing the Price vs. Value Debate for Investors
The S&P 500 closed the week at the record price of 4,958.61. It has never been higher. And price alone is largely irrelevant. An asset bought with a hefty price tag can both deliver or destroy a ton of value.
1,464 Highs and Counting: Why the S&P 500's Record Run May Not be a Sell Signal
Since 1950 through the end of last week (January 26, 2024), the S&P 500 has closed at the all-time high on 1,464 separate occasions. Last Friday was just the most recent. Is the market saying it’s time to sell?
Want to Retire Richer? Five Ways SECURE Act 2.0 Could Help in 2024.
SECURE Act 2.0, passed in late 2022, was full of new provisions for retirement savers and investors. Now that a year has gone by, it may be a good time to remind ourselves of some of the most important changes going into effect this year.
Bitcoin ETFs: Should You Own One?
Investors have a new way to invest in the cryptocurrency that is regulated, transparent, and relatively accessible. Now what?
The Best Investments from 2023
Every once in a while, we feel the need to be less serious and write about something that is purely entertaining (well, for us nerds, anyway). This post should be treated as such. Pure entertainment. Nothing actionable. Absolutely no advice. To that end, here are the best investments of 2023.
Roth vs Traditional 401(k) in 2024: Navigating Retirement Planning and Tax Planning
Retirement planning options continue to evolve, and the Roth 401(k) has become an option for more and more people. Determining which is better - Roth or traditional 401(k) - will often come down to the assumptions made around current vs. future income levels, current vs. future income tax rates, and when (or if) retirement savings will be spent down. Sometimes the answer may seem obvious. For those with murkier forecasts, using both options can make sense, too.
Small Companies. Small Returns?
Traditional theory suggests investors should earn higher returns in riskier investments, like small caps. However, small cap stocks have underperformed large caps for more than a decade. And they have even underperformed bigger, more stable stocks since the late 1970s. Which begs the question: why own smaller, riskier companies if we aren’t earning higher returns?