The Modern Investor

Written by Human Advisors, for Human Investors

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Eric Blattner 5/22/25 Eric Blattner 5/22/25

Recession Predictions: Noise or Necessity?

Fear and greed are two powerful emotions, and news stories highlighting a potential recession are common.

Predicting the next recession is a tough game, and one I’d prefer not to play. It may be a bit more interesting and useful to look at past recessions and their impact on investors.

Eric Blattner 4/25/24 Eric Blattner 4/25/24

Where Will Interest Rates Go Next?

There was a 50% chance rates would be cut by 1.5% this year, all the way to the 3.50% to 3.75% range.

At the same time, the idea of rates remaining high (or even rising) seemed improbable, to say the least. Fast forward to today. The current odds that the lower end of the Fed Funds target range will be 5.0% or higher by the end of the year is basically a 1-to-1 coin flip.

Consider this another example of just how quickly expectations about interest rates can change.